NBG keeps monetary policy rate unchanged at 8%
According to the NBG, the monetary policy rate stands at 8 per
cent.“As of August 2025, the overall price level in Georgia
increased by 4.6 per cent year-on-year. The moderate increase in
inflation relative to the 3 per cent target was mainly driven by
rising food prices, which are characterised by high volatility.
Notably, core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components
from the consumer basket, such as food, energy, and tobacco, remained
below the 3 per cent target, standing at 2.8 per cent in August. Apart
from core inflation, other measures of relatively sticky prices have
moderately ticked up, which keeps the risks of inflation expectations
noteworthy. Specifically, service sector inflation reached 4.2 per
cent in August. Meanwhile, prices of imported goods remain in
deflationary territory, largely reflecting the year-on-year decline in
fuel prices.As expected under the NBG’s central scenario, inflation
is temporarily remaining above the target level and is projected to
average around 3.8 per cent in 2025. Despite current inflation being
primarily driven by temporary supply-side factors, the NBG still
chooses a cautious stance to prevent the ongoing price increases from
getting entrenched in long-term inflation expectations. Consequently,
inflation is projected to stabilise around 3 per cent over the medium
term.At the same time, as anticipated, economic activity is exhibiting
a gradual convergence toward its long-term trend, thereby mitigating
demand-side pressures on prices. Specifically, economic growth
amounted to 6.5 per cent in July. The normalisation of aggregate
demand toward its long-run trend is further supported by tighter
financial conditions, as reflected in prevailing market interest
rates.Amid elevated global uncertainty, inflation risks, both to the
upside and downside, remain noteworthy.Accordingly, the Monetary
Policy Committee considered both high-inflation and low-inflation risk
scenarios. On the one hand, U.S. tariff policy remains uncertain, and
its final configuration has been revised on multiple occasions. This
situation further reinforces global economic fragmentation. As a
result, supply chain disruptions may emerge, potentially contributing
to the development of a stagflationary environment. Moreover, the
re-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East would
generate inflationary risks, as it exerts significant pressure on
global oil markets. At the same time, when considering a
high-inflation scenario, tendencies in the domestic economy also
warrant attention. Specifically, other things equal, a moderate
increase in the overall price level above the target is expected to be
temporary, driven mainly by base effects and one-off adjustments in
food prices. However, if inflation remains above the target for a
prolonged period, this could give rise to risks of elevated inflation
expectations. The realisation of these risks requires a higher
interest rate path compared to the central scenario.On the other hand,
the Monetary Policy Committee considered a low-inflation risk
scenario, where the realisation of the risks would shape the
development of fundamental factors in a way that requires a lower
trajectory of the monetary policy rate compared to the central
scenario. International food commodity prices exhibit high volatility;
however, should prices normalise more rapidly than expected, this
adjustment would be transmitted to the domestic market. At the same
time, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains relatively weak globally. If
these dynamics persist longer than anticipated, the combination of an
appreciated exchange rate and a declining trend in international food
commodity prices is expected to exert downward pressure on headline
inflation through lower imported inflation.As a result of
macroeconomic analysis and the assessment of existing risks, the
Monetary Policy Committee has considered it optimal to maintain a
moderately tight monetary policy stance and keep the policy rate
unchanged at 8 per cent. Upcoming decisions on the monetary policy
rate will depend on updated macroeconomic forecast scenarios and risk
assessments.The NBG will use all available instruments to maintain
price stability. This means keeping the overall price level increase
close to the 3 per cent target over the medium term,” the press
release of the National Bank of Georgia reads.The next meeting of the
Monetary Policy Committee will be held on November 5, 2025.
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