TBC Capital: Strong Exports Driven by Car Re-Exports, While Imports Re...
The investment firm notes that the trend observed over recent months
has remained stable: exports remain strong, largely due to re-exports
of vehicles, while import growth remains weak, partly because of a
decline in car imports.Remittance flows also showed positive momentum,
increasing by 12.2% year-over-year in June. Meanwhile, tourism
revenues grew 5% annually in the second quarter, up from 2.3% in the
first quarter, despite short-term disruptions from the conflict in the
Middle East.The European Union remained the largest source of foreign
exchange inflows, accounting for 20.3% of total inflows in Q2,
although slightly down from 21.7% in Q1.“As we’ve emphasized in
previous reports, strong net foreign exchange inflows are one of the
three key factors supporting the GEL (Georgian lari),” TBC Capital
said.“Of the remaining two, the US dollar has strengthened slightly
following the US-EU preliminary trade agreement, while the GEL deposit
conversion dynamics in July present a more mixed picture.”Despite
this, pressure for GEL appreciation remains strong, as reflected by
the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) ongoing foreign exchange
interventions. According to TBC Capital estimates, the NBG purchased
more US dollars in July than in previous months, indicating
significant foreign currency inflows.TBC Capital’s short- and
long-term exchange rate models suggest that the GEL remains slightly
undervalued compared to its equilibrium level.As of June, annual
inflation reached 4.0%, showing a moderate acceleration from the
previous month but remaining broadly in line with expectations. Food
prices remain the primary driver of inflation, although service
inflation was also elevated in June.It’s worth noting that the
temporary effect of reduced internet fees, which had helped lower
inflation by around 0.4 percentage points, is expected to expire in
July and August.“If inflationary pressures intensify, which is not
our base-case scenario, the excess of foreign currency in the economy
would likely contribute to further appreciation of the GEL,” the
review states.At its July 30 meeting, the NBG opted to keep the
refinancing rate unchanged at 8%, citing a balance of risks.According
to TBC Capital, non-cash spending remained stable across June and
July, after three months of consecutive growth. This contributed to a
slowdown in annual spending growth. Migrant and non-resident spending
showed similar dynamics, with non-resident expenditures, a key
real-time indicator of tourism, improving in July.Based on preliminary
estimates from Geostat, Georgia’s economic growth in June was 6.3%,
with an average of 7.1% for Q2.
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