NBG leaves refinancing rate at 8% – for the fourteenth time
As expected, in line with the NBG’s central scenario, inflation has
begun to normalize, standing at 4.8 percent in November. Meanwhile,
long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored within the
target, as reflected in relatively sticky price indicators. In
particular, core inflation, which excludes the most volatile
components of the consumer basket, such as food, energy, and tobacco,
stood at 2.3 percent in November. Service sector inflation also
remains near the target, at 2.6 percent. Inflation, which currently
remains above the 3 percent target, continues to be driven by food
prices, partly reflecting a low base effect from the previous year as
well as exogenous factors. According to the central scenario, other
things equal, the increase in food prices is expected to have only a
temporary impact on inflation, with its effects gradually dissipating.
At the same time, overall demand is gradually converging toward its
long-term potential, as anticipated, thereby moderating demand-side
pressures on prices. In light of the above, under the central
scenario, inflation is projected to average 4 percent in 2025, and
from the second quarter of 2026 it is expected to converge toward the
target, averaging 3.5 percent on an annual basis.Given the high
uncertainty, upside risks to inflation are more pronounced, while
downside risks continue to remain. Accordingly, the Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) considered both high-inflation and low-inflation risk
scenarios, along with the central scenario, and the risks operating in
different directions were taken into account in the decision-making
process.The high-inflation risk scenario considered by the MPC
envisages, on the one hand, that flexible price inflation
(particularly food inflation) will remain elevated for a prolonged
period. In turn, a sustained deviation of headline inflation from the
target could put upward pressure on inflation expectations.
Furthermore, under this scenario, against the backdrop of ongoing
global developments, changes in international commodity prices also
remain a notable factor. In particular, amid a deteriorating
geopolitical situation, oil prices are expected to rise above the
levels assumed in the central scenario, with corresponding spillovers
to the domestic market. A stronger-than-expected intensification of
economic fragmentation also poses an inflation risk, as it could
disrupt supply chains and contribute to higher global inflation. The
realization of these risks requires a tightening of monetary policy.On
the other hand, the MPC considered a low-inflation risk scenario,
where the realization of the risks would shape the development of
fundamental factors in a way that requires a lower trajectory of the
monetary policy rate compared to the central scenario. In particular,
at this stage, current conditions in the domestic labor market are
putting downward pressure on prices, which strengthens the
possibilities of developing a low-inflation scenario. At the same
time, a prolonged period of a weak position of the U.S. dollar,
together with declining food prices in international markets, would
put downward pressure on headline inflation through lower imported
goods prices.As a result of macroeconomic analysis and the assessment
of the aforementioned scenarios, the MPC has considered it optimal to
maintain a moderately tight monetary policy stance and kept the policy
rate unchanged at 8 percent. Upcoming decisions on the monetary policy
rate will depend on updated data and the realization of risks.
According to the central scenario, the NBG will continue the
normalization of monetary policy only after the current one-off
factors have been fully dissipated and inflation converges the target
level. However, should inflation persist above the target for an
extended period due to various one-off factors, the MPC stands ready
to maintain the current tight stance for longer than expected and, if
necessary, to tighten it further.The NBG will use all available
instruments to maintain price stability. This means keeping the
overall price level increase close to the 3 percent target over the
medium term.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will be
held on February 11, 2026.
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