Tbilisi (GBC) – TBC Capital published a macroeconomic update and identified three main factors in favor of GEL. These are: strong net foreign exchange inflows, global weakness of USD, and a relative normalization of demand for foreign currency in the domestic market.

The macroeconomic update states that the net effect of the variables affecting the GEL has recently been more pronounced in the direction of strengthening. In this regard, external factors play a leading role, although some improvement is also observed in the domestic component.

  • Strengthening by only 2.7% YTD against the USD, the GEL has largely been resisting appreciation pressures from both external and domestic components in 2025;
  • On the external side, two particular drivers – improving net foreign currency inflows and global USD weakness - have been supporting the GEL;
  • The combination of rising interest rates and a depreciating currency, common for emerging markets and unusual for a developed economy, has been underscoring the ongoing  USD weakness;
  • Domestically, demand on foreign currency has relatively eased, with early signs of deposits gradually switching back to the GEL;
  • On this backdrop, appreciation pressures have largely translated into the NBG replenishing foreign currency reserves, buying 102 mn in March and, per our estimates, only accelerating purchases since;
  • As for other arguments going forward, while the pressure stemming from inflation dynamics seems relatively insignificant, the recent GEL REER undervaluation implies risks of higher imported inflation and thus possibly more pronounced GEL appreciation.