TBC to pay GEL 1.75 per share dividend in 3Q25

“The National Bank of Georgia remains committed to replenishing reserves. It is noteworthy that, thanks to favourable market conditions, the NBG continues to bolster its reserves.In March, USD 101.7 million was added; in April, USD 266.4 million; in May, USD 245.4 million; in June, USD 266.0 million; in July, USD 416.9 million; in August, USD 199.6 million; and in September, USD 100.0 million. In total, net purchases from January to September 2025 amounted to USD 1,596.0 million. Data on net purchases for October will be published on November 25.Foreign exchange reserves are a crucial safeguard for macroeconomic stability. The NBG’s long-term strategy has consistently focused on accumulating FX reserves and effectively managing reserve assets. The achievement reflected in the October figures underscores this commitment.As of October 2025, gold accounts for 16.4% of the total international currency reserves, valued at USD 920.6 million. Due to fluctuations in gold prices, the value of monetary gold increased by USD 420.6 million since acquisition, highlighting the validity of the National Bank’s reserve diversification strategy,” the bank states.According to the NBG, updated data on official foreign exchange reserves will be published on December 5, 2025.

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Bochorishvili claimed that Ukraine displayed a “negative attitude” toward Georgia’s candidate status and cited Ukrainian opposition between 2022 and 2023 campaigns as evidence that Ukraine allegedly hindered Georgia’s European integration.In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sibiga rejected these claims, stating that the obstacles to Georgia’s EU accession are entirely the responsibility of Tbilisi. He emphasized Ukraine’s continued support for Georgia’s European aspirations, writing, “All the reasons for the bad results of Georgia’s accession to the EU lie in Tbilisi, not in Kiev.”Sibiga added that Ukraine wishes only for Georgia to achieve its European goals, stressing that Georgia is aligned with Europe rather than the “Russian world,” directly countering Bochorishvili’s allegations.

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His comments come in response to a statement from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), which warns that Georgia is edging closer to full autocracy under the rule of the Georgian Dream.“Even by Georgian Dream standards, the regime’s new politically motivated charges against opposition leaders are appalling. This sick behaviour mirrors the tactics of their patrons in Moscow and Beijing. The anti-American Georgian Dream regime is betraying its people in favour of Moscow, Tehran & Beijing,” Rep Joe Wilson wrote. Even by Georgian Dream standards, the regime’s new politically motivated charges against opposition leaders are appalling. This sick behavior mirrors the tactics of their patrons in Moscow and Beijing. The anti-American Georgian Dream regime is betraying its people in favor of… https://t.co/yAMmjMoP8p — Joe Wilson (@RepJoeWilson) November 6, 2025 For context, criminal proceedings have been initiated against Mikheil Saakashvili, Giorgi Vashadze, Nika Gvaramia, Nikanor Melia, Zurab Japaridze, Elene Khoshtaria, Mamuka Khazaradze, and Badri Japaridze.

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Credit investment remains high at 13.4%, while real lending growth slowed to 8.2%. The cumulative budget deficit narrowed to 0.5% of GDP, compared to an average of 2.3% in 2022–2024, and government debt fell to 35.2% of GDP.External inflows remain robust: EU and US remittances, which make up 66% of total transfers, grew by 13.7% annually in September. Tourism revenues increased by 6.6% in Q3 and 5.1% over nine months, with rising activity from China, India, Uzbekistan, Israel, and Azerbaijan, while Russia saw a decline despite more visitors. Non-resident spending via TBC channels remained positive, though growth slightly slowed in October.Goods exports increased by 7.7% in the first nine months, driven by re-exports of cars and growth in local exports like precious metal ores, live animals, nuts, ferro-alloys, and wine. Imports grew by 4.3%, with a sharp 31% decline in car imports offset by growth in other categories. As a result, the goods trade deficit narrowed to 28.7% of GDP, the lowest in the last decade. The terms of trade improved slightly due to higher international gold prices, and overall net foreign exchange inflows remain strong, supporting the GEL.Inflation reached 4.8% in September and 5.2% in October, in line with forecasts. Price increases were driven by local and mixed food products, while imported goods saw slight deflation due to lower fuel prices.TBC Capital expects inflation to ease to around 4.5% by year-end. With stable foreign exchange inflows, larization of deposits increasing, and the National Bank’s interventions, the GEL is projected to remain near current levels through 2025.

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In detail:• The residential segment index decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous month and increased by 7.5% compared to the same month of the previous year;• The non-residential segment index increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month and by 5.9% compared to the same month of the previous year;• The civil segment index decreased by 0.01% compared to the previous month and increased by 1.7% compared to the same month of the previous year.The monthly decrease was mainly due to a 1.6% decline in average monthly nominal wages of employees in the construction sector, which contributed -0.23 percentage points to the total index change.Compared to September 2024, the CCI increased by 4.7%, largely driven by a 19.2% increase in average monthly nominal wages of employees in the construction sector and a 5.3% increase in the cost of machinery, which contributed 4.29 and 0.34 percentage points respectively to the total index change. Overall, the Construction Cost Index has increased by 24.8% compared to February 2022.

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Mariam Kvrivishvili, Georgia’s Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development, highlighted that the agreements cover the renewal of the free trade agreement, the joint development of the “Air Silk Road,” cooperation in agriculture, and collaboration in the field of artificial intelligence.“The updated free trade agreement places special emphasis on boosting Georgian agricultural exports to China and enhances investment opportunities, paving the way for increased Chinese investment in Georgia,” Kvrivishvili said. The aviation MoU with China’s Civil Aviation Administration aims to improve direct flight connectivity, facilitating trade and travel between the countries.Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture signed an agreement to strengthen exports of Georgian products to China, while the AI-focused MoU with China’s National Development and Reform Commission aims to expand cooperation in emerging technologies. Kvrivishvili noted that these agreements mark a major step forward in reinforcing bilateral economic and people-to-people relations.

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As of October 2025, the overall price level in Georgia increased by 5.2 percent year-on-year. The increase in inflation relative to the 3 percent target was mainly driven by food price inflation, which partly reflected the low base effect from the previous year and the impact of exogenous factors. However, inflation excluding food prices, as well as other measures of relatively sticky prices that better reflect long-term inflation expectations, have remained close to the target level. In particular, core inflation, which excludes from the consumer basket the most volatile components, such as food, energy, and tobacco, remained below the 3 percent target, standing at 2.4 percent in October. At the same time, service sector inflation remained near the target, at 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, prices of imported goods remain low (0 percent), largely reflecting the year-on-year decline in fuel prices. Despite these developments, the prolonged high level of inflation in relatively flexible prices (mainly food) warrants attention regarding potential risks to inflation expectations.According to the NBG's updated central scenario, the inflation forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised slightly upwards, largely due to high food inflation. According to the current central forecast, inflation will average around 4 percent in 2025, and decrease to 3.5 percent in 2026. Other things being equal, elevated food prices are expected to have only a temporary impact on inflation, with their effects gradually fading. The central scenario precisely envisages such a development. In particular, the abovementioned dynamics are temporary in nature and are not expected to create second-round effects, which means that the associated price pressures do not to spill over to the prices of other goods and services.At the same time, economic activity is gradually converging toward its long-term potential, thereby moderating demand-side pressures on prices. According to preliminary data, in January-September 2025 economic growth amounted to 7.7 percent. The normalization of aggregate demand toward its long-run trend is further supported by the maintenance of tight financial conditions, as reflected in prevailing market interest rates.Given the high uncertainty, upside risks to inflation are more pronounced, while downside risks continue to remain. Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee considered both high-inflation and low-inflation risk scenarios, along with the central scenario, and the risks operating in different directions were taken into account in the decision-making process.The high-inflation risk scenario that the MPC considered, on the one hand, assumes the realization of global inflationary risks. In particular, the re-escalation of US tariff policies will exacerbate global fragmentation more than expected and may have a negative impact on supply chains. This amplifies the risk of additional price increase for certain types of commodities in international markets. In this scenario, beyond tariff policy, the risk of re-escalation of the geopolitical tensions remains noteworthy as it has a significant impact on international commodity prices. The high-inflation scenario, along with exogenous factors, also takes into account the realization of domestic economic risks. In particular, if inflation remains above the target for a prolonged period, this could exacerbate inflationary expectations. At the same time, if aggregate demand remains above its potential level, demand-side pressures on prices are likely to intensify. The materialization of these risks would necessitate a tightening of the policy rate.On the other hand, the Monetary Policy Committee considered a low-inflation risk scenario, where the realization of the risks would shape the development of fundamental factors in a way that requires a lower trajectory of the monetary policy rate compared to the central scenario. In particular, this scenario, in line with forecasts by international organizations, anticipates a marked decline in oil prices in international commodity markets, reflecting both an increase in supply and a slowdown in global demand. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will remain relatively weak globally for longer than anticipated, contributing to a reduction in headline inflation through lower imported inflation. Additionally, domestic labor market developments are placing downward pressure on prices, which strengthens the possibilities of developing a low-inflation scenario.As a result of macroeconomic analysis and the assessment of the aforementioned scenarios, the Monetary Policy Committee has considered it optimal to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy stance and kept the policy rate unchanged at 8 percent. Upcoming decisions on the monetary policy rate will depend on updated data and the realization of risks. If the impact of one-off factors on inflation is prolonged, the Monetary Policy Committee stands ready to maintain the current tight stance for longer than expected and, if necessary, to tighten it further.The NBG will use all available instruments to maintain price stability. This means keeping the overall price level increase close to the 3 percent target over the medium term.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will be held on December 17, 2025.

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According to Khutsishvili, this presents a unique opportunity for Georgian companies to forge connections with Chinese counterparts, thereby maximising Georgia’s export potential both within China and across various markets.“Exports are a vital component of our economy. They have consistently been a driving force and a key contributor to economic growth over recent years. This event allows Georgian companies to expand their reach into larger markets, such as China,” he explained.Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, accompanied by a Georgian delegation, is currently on a working visit to the People’s Republic of China.

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