Turnava: If the conflict in the Middle East subsides in the coming months, inflation will gradually decline by 2027

Of this total, 618.2 thousand trips abroad were made by Georgian resident visitors, representing a 3.1% increase over the figure for the corresponding period in 2025.Georgian resident visitors undertook 428.3 thousand "tourist-type" trips abroad, an increase of 3.8% compared to the same period of the previous year.The majority of these trips (45.3%) were made by Georgian resident visitors aged 31–50, while women accounted for 46.9% of the total number of trips. In Q3 2026, the largest share of visits (35.7%) was made for the purpose of visiting friends or relatives.According to Geostat data, the majority of visits were to Turkey and the Russian Federation, amounting to 204.6 thousand and 112 thousand visits, respectively.The average number of nights spent during visits in Q3 2026 was 7.80, which is 1.3% lower than the figure recorded in Q3 2025 (7.90 nights). 97.3% of the visits were repeat visits.Expenditures incurred during visits in Q3 2026 totaled ₾835.2 million, an increase of 19.3% compared to the same period of the previous year. The average expenditure per visit rose by 15.8% compared to Q3 2025, reaching 1,351.0 GEL.

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From January through October, the portfolios recorded the following returns: Conservative Portfolio: 8.60% (real return: 2.85%) Balanced Portfolio: 8.11% (real return: 2.38%) Dynamic Portfolio: 7.41% (real return: 1.72%) October brought mixed monthly results as concerns over the financing of AI investment weighed on international equity markets. Domestic fixed-income instruments contributed positively, while the Georgian lari’s 0.23% appreciation against the US dollar reduced returns on foreign currency-denominated assets.Consequently, the Conservative portfolio led October performance with a 0.14% gain. The Balanced and Dynamic portfolios, with higher allocations to international equities, declined by 0.59% and 1.34%, respectively.Despite the weak result in October, the Dynamic portfolio continues to lead in since-inception annualized return with nominal 12.86% (real annualized return: 8.42%), compared with 12.21% (real: 7.80%) for the Balanced portfolio and 10.16% (real: 4.25%) for the Conservative portfolio.As of the end of October, total assets of the Pension Fund of Georgia exceeded GEL 10.2 billion, with cumulative investment returns approaching GEL 3.0 billion.The number of participants enrolled in the pension scheme is 1 million 787 thousand people.As of October 31, 2026, 38,186 people benefited from the accumulative pension, and 201,645,743.53 GEL was issued to them as pensions.

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During the meeting, the parties discussed Georgia's economic development trends, inflation dynamics, monetary policy, the state of the external sector, and financial sector stability. Particular attention was paid to the global economic environment and the impact of geopolitical developments on the Georgian economy.Natia Turnava briefed the mission members on the country's macroeconomic situation and key economic indicators. She highlighted the growth in international reserves, which have reached a historic high of USD 8.25 billion. The positive dynamics in the external sector were also discussed. In 2025, the current account deficit declined to a historic low of 2.9% of GDP, while in the first half of 2026, according to preliminary data, it stood at 2.5% of GDP.Natia Turnava also discussed the latest inflation trends. She noted that annual inflation stood at 5.9% in October 2026. The increase in inflation is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, particularly higher energy prices, which continue to make a significant contribution to inflation. The NBG maintains a tight monetary policy stance and stands ready to take appropriate action, if necessary, in light of inflationary risks.As part of the IMF mission, the macroeconomic situation in Georgia, the country's fiscal and monetary policies, and its economic development prospects will be assessed.The meeting with the IMF delegation was also attended by Vice Governors of the National Bank of Georgia Ekaterine Mikabadze and Nino Jeladze, Executive Director Beka Dotchviri, IMF Resident Representative in Georgia Andrew Jewell and heads of departments of the NBG.

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She explained that the rate of deposit "larization" is improving rapidly, showing an increase of 8.3 percentage points compared to December 2024, a clear reflection of the heightened confidence in the Lari.Natia Turnava noted that the National Bank continues to actively implement measures to promote larization, which serve to strengthen the monetary policy transmission mechanism and reduce the financial system's vulnerability to exchange rate risks. This trend toward de-dollarization is also reflected in the credit portfolio. As of September 2026, 58.5% of the total credit portfolio is denominated in the national currency, a result of measures implemented to promote "larization" (dedollarization).Furthermore, according to the Governor of the National Bank, the exchange rate remains stable. As of September, the real effective exchange rate had appreciated by 4% year-on-year, driven largely by the appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate.In the view of Natia Turnava, amid heightened global inflationary pressures and geopolitical shocks, the appreciation of the exchange rate helps to mitigate pressure stemming from imported inflation.

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According to Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian specialists reviewed the operations of Georgia’s State Laboratory of Agriculture, which tests plant-based products destined for the Russian market for pesticide and agrochemical residues. They evaluated the laboratory’s technical equipment, staff qualifications, research methodologies, and the compliance of the facilities with established requirements.Georgian counterparts also briefed the delegation on the procedures for determining the quarantine phytosanitary status of samples and the process for issuing certificates. As part of the visit, the Russian delegation also traveled to the Gori Municipality, where they inspected five facilities dedicated to the cultivation and storage of pome and stone fruits, as well as the preparation of export consignments.Based on the audit findings, Rosselkhoznadzor will issue a formal document to the laboratory, confirming its competence and the reliability of its research results. According to the agency, the Georgian side indicated that a national system for plant quarantine is currently under development. Integrating the digital platforms of the two countries will improve information exchange, increase the bilateral supply of products subject to quarantine control, and strengthen safety oversight.

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Lion Finance Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 127.90/share (+6.32% w/w and -3.98% m/m). More than 468k shares traded in the range of GBP 117.50 - 131.10/share. Average daily traded volume was 69k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.09% of its capitalization.TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 48.56/share (+6.77% w/w and -4.78% m/m). More than 497k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 43.92 - 52.35/share. Average daily traded volume was 67k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.89% of its capitalization.Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 45.85/share (+5.16% w/w and +3.27% m/m). More than 242k shares traded in the range of GBP 43.10 - 48.55/share. Average daily traded volume was 42k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.74% of its capitalization.

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“In Uzbekistan, loan growth is gradually recovering as we continue to adjust our loan book in line with regulatory requirements. Overall, loans increased 3% quarter-on-quarter, with non-instant cash loans growing by 13%. As we have seen growth in our loan book and have been proactive in managing the cost of deposits, our NIM recovered in the third quarter to above 20%”, - Butskhrikidze said.According to Butskhrikidze, payments’ volumes driven by the market-leading Payme franchise also remain very strong, rising 54% year-on-year in USD terms for the quarter. TBC will continue to actively manage asset quality and prepare for the implementation of new regulations on auto-collections, which are now expected to come into effect in early 2027.Butskhrikidze, notes that TBC is launching new products and further connecting millions of consumers with an increasing number of businesses. This includes the launch of Novvot, the cross-ecosystem loyalty programme, while issuance of the daily banking Salom card now tops 1.5 million.The Group’s consistent profit generation and the strong capital position of our banks in both Georgia and Uzbekistan (CET1 ratios of 17.0% and 21.4% as of 30 September 2026, respectively, both well above the regulatory minimums) enable us to continue returning capital to TBC shareholders. As such, the Board has declared a quarterly dividend of GEL 1.75 per share for the third quarter (GEL 5.25 for the nine months ended 30 September 2026, up 5% year-on-year). I am also pleased to announce the launch of a GEL 50 million share buyback programme.

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“The National Bank first initiated investments in monetary gold in 2024. Diversifying reserve assets and managing them effectively remains one of the NBG’s strategic priorities. Investing in monetary gold aims to diversify international reserves and safeguard them against volatility across global financial markets,” the statement read.Alongside the expanding gold portfolio, Georgia’s gross international reserves hit an all-time high of USD 8.25bn in October 2026. This represents a 47.2 per cent increase year-on-year and a month-on-month rise of USD 82.6m.Reserve adequacy metrics have also strengthened significantly. Under the International Monetary Fund’s Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) metric, Georgia’s reserves stand at 130 per cent, comfortably surpassing the IMF’s recommended benchmark of 100 per cent.The central bank reiterated its long-term policy of accumulating international reserves while maintaining efficient asset management and diversification. The NBG actively replenishes foreign exchange reserves when market conditions are favourable, reporting net market purchases of USD 3,370.7m over the first nine months of 2026 (January–September).The NBG is scheduled to publish its next updated reserve figures on 7 December 2026.

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