NBG kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25%
According to the National Bank of Georgia, geopolitical tensions in
the Middle East have persisted longer than anticipated, prolonging the
supply-side shock and, consequently, increasing inflationary
pressures. As a result, the deviation of inflation from its 3 per cent
target in Georgia continues to be driven largely by exogenous factors.
In September 2026, annual inflation stood at 5.6 per cent, of which
approximately 2 percentage points were attributable to energy prices.
Moreover, disruptions to international transportation and shipping,
coupled with higher energy prices, are increasing production and
transportation costs, creating additional inflationary pressures
through indirect effects on the prices of other goods and services.
Against this backdrop, particular attention should be paid to
developments in the stickier components of inflation, which provide a
better gauge of the anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations.
In this regard, core and services inflation remain below headline
inflation, standing at 3.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
Accordingly, the impact of the supply-side shock on inflation
expectations remains moderate at this stage. However, given the
prolonged nature of the shock, this remains an important risk to
monitor.Amid more persistent inflationary pressures than previously
anticipated and taking into account global developments, the NBG has
revised its central inflation forecast for 2026 upward by 0.2
percentage points to 5.4 per cent. All else equal, inflation is
expected to gradually converge toward its 3 per cent target from the
second half of 2027, averaging 3.5 per cent for the year.Economic
activity has remained stronger than expected. According to preliminary
data, economic growth stood at 6.3 per cent in August 2026, averaging
7.6 per cent over the first eight months of the year. Notably, growth
continues to be driven largely by high-productivity sectors, which
offset demand-side inflationary pressures. According to the NBG’s
updated central forecast, the economic growth projection for 2026 has
been revised upward from 6.5 per cent to 7.2 per cent, while, all else
equal, growth in 2027 is expected to be around 5.5 per
cent.Uncertainty surrounding the further evolution of geopolitical
developments and the magnitude of their impact on the economy remains
elevated. Accordingly, alongside the central scenario, the Monetary
Policy Committee (MPC) considered both high-inflation and
low-inflation risk scenarios.In the event of the realisation of the
high-inflation risk scenario, fundamental processes require a higher
trajectory of the monetary policy rate than the central scenario. The
key risk underlying the high-inflation scenario is a further
escalation and prolongation of the conflict in the Middle East, which,
amid additional disruptions to oil supply and refining, would push
energy prices even higher. Moreover, disruptions to supply chains and
the shift to alternative transportation routes would increase
production and transportation costs. As a result, heightened global
inflationary pressures would spill over to the domestic economy
through imported inflation and tighter global financial conditions,
requiring further monetary policy tightening and the maintenance of a
restrictive stance for a longer period.On the other hand, under the
low-inflation risk scenario considered by the MPC, the realisation of
the risks would allow a faster normalisation of monetary policy stance
compared to the central scenario. Specifically, under this scenario,
strong economic growth, driven largely by high-productivity sectors,
would prove more persistent than previously projected. This, in turn,
would lead to a sustained improvement in the external position and an
upward revision to the assessment of long-term growth potential. These
developments would support a fundamental appreciation of the exchange
rate and limit inflationary pressures stemming from aggregate demand.
In addition, the scenario envisages a de-escalation of the conflict in
the Middle East, resulting in lower energy prices compared to the
central scenario. Consequently, inflation would converge toward its
target more rapidly.“Taking into account the current macroeconomic
environment and prevailing risks, the Monetary Policy Committee
decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged. The moderately
tight monetary policy stance aims to minimise the risks of rising
inflation expectations and second-round effects, ensuring that
inflation returns swiftly to its 3 per cent target once the supply
shock dissipates. Should the prolonged supply shock lead to an upward
trend in inflation expectations, which would amplify second-round
effects, the MPC will continue to increase the monetary policy rate
moderately. Once the inflationary shock dissipates, the NBG will
gradually begin to normalise its monetary policy stance,” the press
release reads.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will
be held on December 16, 2026.
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