NBG keeps Monetary Policy Rate unchanged at 8%
Inflation in Georgia remains close to the target level of 3%. In May
2025, the overall price level increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while
core inflation, which excludes highly volatile items such as food,
energy, and tobacco prices from the consumer basket, declined slightly
to 2.0%. Notably, long-term inflation expectations remain stable.
Service sector inflation, which tends to be stickier and reflects
long-term inflation expectations, stood at 2.2% in May.Overall, upward
pressures on inflation are primarily driven by food prices, partly
reflecting developments in global food markets. On the other hand,
deflation in imported goods, primarily driven by lower fuel prices
year over year, serves to counterbalance rising food
inflation.According to the NBG’s central scenario, as previously
projected, inflation is expected to temporarily exceed the target in
2025, averaging 3.8 percent, driven by base effects and global
tendencies. Over the medium term, it is expected to stabilize around
the 3 percent target.Alongside stable inflation, economic activity
remains robust. According to the preliminary data, average economic
growth for the first four months of the year stood at 8.8%. As
expected, the pace of economic growth is showing signs of gradually
converging toward its long-term trend. Meanwhile, credit activity
growth has aligned more closely with its equilibrium level.Global
economic uncertainty remains elevated amid ongoing geopolitical
tensions and persistent trade barriers. As a result, inflation is
subject to considerable risks on both the upside and downside.
Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee considered both
high-inflation and low-inflation risk scenarios. On the one hand,
military actions in the Middle East have led to an increase in oil
prices.At the same time, risks of economic fragmentation at the
international level have intensified. This, in turn, raises concerns
over the deterioration of supply chains and the emergence of a
globally inflationary environment. If these risks materialize and
persist, a high-inflation scenario could unfold, one that would
require a higher interest rate path than assumed under the central
scenario.On the other hand, the Monetary Policy Committee has
considered a low-inflation risk scenario, where the realization of
fundamental factors would require a lower trajectory for the monetary
policy rate compared to the central scenario. Specifically, amid
ongoing uncertainty, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains weakened.At
the same time, international food commodity prices have seen a
moderate decline. If these tendencies persist, a strengthened exchange
rate combined with stable international food commodity prices is
expected to exert downward pressure on headline inflation through
lower imported inflation.As a result of macroeconomic analysis and the
assessment of existing risks, the Monetary Policy Committee has
considered it optimal to adopt a cautious approach toward further
normalizing the monetary policy rate, keeping it unchanged at 8%.
Upcoming decisions on the monetary policy rate will depend on updated
macroeconomic forecast scenarios and risk assessments.The NBG will use
all available instruments to maintain price stability. This means
keeping the overall price level increase close to the 3% target over
the medium term.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will
be held on July 30, 2025.
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