Tbilisi (GBC) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Georgia by 0.5 percentage points and expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 6%. According to the organization’s latest “Regional Economic Outlook” report, Georgia is expected to grow by 5% in 2027.
As of the report, the average economic growth rate in the Bank’s regions of operation will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, and recover to 3.6% in 2027.
Against this background, Georgia maintains a high growth momentum. The EBRD notes that in 2025, real GDP in the country grew by 7.5%, mainly driven by the services sector and tourism. Private consumption was supported by solid real wage growth and an expansion in credit activity, while capital investment contracted for the first time since 2021. The bank estimates that economic growth has accelerated further, reaching an annualized rate of 9.1% in the first quarter of 2026.
EBRD analysts indicate that the implementation of large investment projects in the real estate, transport and renewable energy sectors could further accelerate economic growth. However, external risks are also emerging, in particular, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could weaken economic activity as it leads to a decrease in tourism revenues and an increase in the cost of imported energy resources.
The report also focuses on other macroeconomic parameters. Price increases have exceeded the National Bank’s 3.0% target since March 2025, and annual inflation was 5.9% in April 2026. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 2.3% of GDP in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025, supported by rising budget revenues, while the external debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 34.4% amid a stable exchange rate and nominal growth. In addition, the current account deficit narrowed to a historic low of 2.6% in 2025, while gross international reserves increased to $6.5 billion in April 2026, covering about 4 months of imports.
In addition to the EBRD, other agencies have also upgraded their economic growth expectations for Georgia. In early May, the National Bank of Georgia increased its forecast from 5% to 6.5%, and yesterday it became known that the Georgian government raised its growth expectations for the current year to 6.3%. According to preliminary estimates by Geostat, GDP grew by 6.2% in April 2026, while the average figure for the first four months was 8.3%.