G&T forecasts 6% growth

Zakaradze noted that key milestones were achieved at both airports during the year. Passenger traffic at Tbilisi International Airport exceeded 5 million for the first time in history, while Batumi International Airport surpassed one million passengers in October. She highlighted peak daily records, including 21,959 passengers and 97 flights at Tbilisi Airport on August 12, and 8,446 passengers across 35 flights at Batumi Airport on August 24.The growth rates further underscore the strong recovery and expansion of Georgia’s aviation sector. Passenger traffic at Tbilisi Airport increased by 13% year-on-year and by 45% compared to the pre-pandemic period, while Batumi Airport recorded 30% annual growth and a 96% increase compared to 2019, described as an unprecedented result.According to 2025 data, 61 airlines currently operate flights to 67 destinations from Tbilisi and Batumi airports. Over the past year, eight new airlines entered the Georgian market, including Air Serbia, British Airways, EasyJet, Edelweiss, Transavia France, Vision Air, Fly Khiva, and Air Samarkand, further expanding connectivity and supporting continued passenger growth.

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As expected, in line with the NBG’s central scenario, inflation has begun to normalize, standing at 4.8 percent in November. Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored within the target, as reflected in relatively sticky price indicators. In particular, core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components of the consumer basket, such as food, energy, and tobacco, stood at 2.3 percent in November. Service sector inflation also remains near the target, at 2.6 percent. Inflation, which currently remains above the 3 percent target, continues to be driven by food prices, partly reflecting a low base effect from the previous year as well as exogenous factors. According to the central scenario, other things equal, the increase in food prices is expected to have only a temporary impact on inflation, with its effects gradually dissipating. At the same time, overall demand is gradually converging toward its long-term potential, as anticipated, thereby moderating demand-side pressures on prices. In light of the above, under the central scenario, inflation is projected to average 4 percent in 2025, and from the second quarter of 2026 it is expected to converge toward the target, averaging 3.5 percent on an annual basis.Given the high uncertainty, upside risks to inflation are more pronounced, while downside risks continue to remain. Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) considered both high-inflation and low-inflation risk scenarios, along with the central scenario, and the risks operating in different directions were taken into account in the decision-making process.The high-inflation risk scenario considered by the MPC envisages, on the one hand, that flexible price inflation (particularly food inflation) will remain elevated for a prolonged period. In turn, a sustained deviation of headline inflation from the target could put upward pressure on inflation expectations. Furthermore, under this scenario, against the backdrop of ongoing global developments, changes in international commodity prices also remain a notable factor. In particular, amid a deteriorating geopolitical situation, oil prices are expected to rise above the levels assumed in the central scenario, with corresponding spillovers to the domestic market. A stronger-than-expected intensification of economic fragmentation also poses an inflation risk, as it could disrupt supply chains and contribute to higher global inflation. The realization of these risks requires a tightening of monetary policy.On the other hand, the MPC considered a low-inflation risk scenario, where the realization of the risks would shape the development of fundamental factors in a way that requires a lower trajectory of the monetary policy rate compared to the central scenario. In particular, at this stage, current conditions in the domestic labor market are putting downward pressure on prices, which strengthens the possibilities of developing a low-inflation scenario. At the same time, a prolonged period of a weak position of the U.S. dollar, together with declining food prices in international markets, would put downward pressure on headline inflation through lower imported goods prices.As a result of macroeconomic analysis and the assessment of the aforementioned scenarios, the MPC has considered it optimal to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy stance and kept the policy rate unchanged at 8 percent. Upcoming decisions on the monetary policy rate will depend on updated data and the realization of risks. According to the central scenario, the NBG will continue the normalization of monetary policy only after the current one-off factors have been fully dissipated and inflation converges the target level. However, should inflation persist above the target for an extended period due to various one-off factors, the MPC stands ready to maintain the current tight stance for longer than expected and, if necessary, to tighten it further.The NBG will use all available instruments to maintain price stability. This means keeping the overall price level increase close to the 3 percent target over the medium term.The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee will be held on February 11, 2026.

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According to the economic activity, the highest monthly earnings were observed in the following fields: Information and communication – 4 212.9 Gel (increased by 5.9 percent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year) Construction – 3 682.9 Gel (increased by 15.2 percent) Financial and insurance activities – 3 526.0 Gel (increased by 10.7 percent) Mining and quarrying – 3 154.3 Gel (increased by 30.6 percent) In the third quarter of 2025, the average earnings for women equaled 1 797.4 GEL, while for men, they were 2 738.1 GEL. The annual earnings growth amounted to 146.8 GEL (8.9%) for women and 287.1 GEL (11.7%) for men. In all sectors, men’s average monthly earnings were higher than women’s.In the third quarter of 2025, the average monthly earnings of employees in the business sector increased by 230.8 GEL (10.5%) and equalled 2,420.9 GEL. According to the economic activity, the highest monthly earnings were observed in Information and communication (4 277.5 GEL, increased by 5.2 percent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year) and Construction activities (3 687.6 GEL, increased by 15.1 percent).In the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the average monthly earnings of employees in the non-business and financial sector increased by 187.4 GEL (10.3%) and amounted to 2 000.9 GEL. According to the economic activity, the highest monthly earnings were observed in the Financial and insurance activities.Tbilisi and Mtskheta-Mtianeti regions are leading regions by the amount of average earnings.

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The mission noted Georgia’s high economic growth dynamics, as well as the decline in the unemployment rate, and highlighted the country’s stable macroeconomic indicators. The mission expects the Eurobond refinancing to proceed smoothly next year.The Mission also welcomes the Government’s intention to implement the reform of state-owned enterprises, within the framework of which significant progress has been achieved in terms of fiscal risk management and financial supervision of state-owned enterprises.The meeting discussed the negotiations envisaged under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement (Article IV), which are scheduled for March 2026.The meeting was attended by Deputy Ministers of Finance Giorgi Kakauridze and Ekaterine Guntsadze, Vice Presidents of the National Bank Ekaterine Mikabadze and Ekaterine Galdava, Deputy Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Vakhtang Tsintsadze, and representatives of the National Bank and the IMF Mission.

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GeoStat reported that exports amounted to USD 6,618.1 million, a 10.1% rise, while imports stood at USD 16,598.1 million, up 9.3%.The report also highlights a negative trade balance of USD 9,980 million for January-November 2025, representing 43.0% of Georgia’s total foreign trade turnover.

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In the case under examination, the consumer was informed of a specific price at the time the product was weighed at the retail store. However, at the point of payment, the consumer was charged a higher price on the grounds that the discount period had expired.According to the Agency, the modification of the price by the trader at the point of payment constitutes a misleading commercial practice, as it violates the fundamental principles of consumer law, including informed consent, reasonable expectations, and fairness.Furthermore, in cases involving the purchase of a large number of products, consumers are not reasonably able to independently verify the validity period of discounts applicable to each individual item. This circumstance significantly increases the risk that consumers may fail to notice the expiration of a discount and, as a result, remain unaware that the price of the goods placed in their shopping basket no longer corresponds to the price indicated on the shelf.By its decision, the Agency ordered the trader to restore the infringed consumer rights within one month and to fully align its commercial policy with the requirements of the applicable legislation.

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Lion Finance Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 91.50/share (- 0.22% w/w and +14.52% m/m). More than 296k shares traded in the range of GBP 90.85 - 95.00/share. Average daily traded volume was 48k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.68% of its capitalization.TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 40.00/share (- 0.87% w/w and +5.68% m/m). More than 394k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 39.25 - 41.35/share. Average daily traded volume was 82k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.71% of its capitalization.Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 29.80/share (+4.56% w/w and +17.32% m/m). More than 222k shares traded in the range of GBP 28.55 - 30.25/share. Average daily traded volume was 43k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.64% of its capitalization.

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According to the NBG, the aim of this change is to promote competition and improve efficiency in the country’s payment market.The NBG explains that having a settlement account will allow payment service providers to conduct transactions without the involvement of commercial banks, reducing dependence on banking institutions, lowering costs, and minimizing operational limitations. As a result, payment transactions for customers of registered providers will be processed more quickly and flexibly.The National Bank emphasizes that this reform marks an important step toward enhancing the competitive environment, which will support the development of innovative and customer-oriented financial products in Georgia.

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