IMF: Georgia's economy grew by 8.4% in the first two months of 2026
Georgia’s economic performance has been robust, supported by sound
macroeconomic management and policies. At the same time, amid rising
global uncertainty, notably from the war in the Middle East, the
outlook is becoming more challenging. Assuming the conflict is
short-lived, growth is expected to remain strong, albeit moderating,
extending the solid performance observed in recent years. While
headline inflation has risen above target due to higher food and
energy prices, core inflation remains contained. The external position
has strengthened, with the current account deficit narrowing and gross
international reserves reaching historic highs. Fiscal policy
continues to be disciplined, with public debt at a low level. Although
the outlook is clouded by heightened geopolitical risks—including
due to a possibly protracted war in the Middle East—Georgia is well
positioned to absorb external shocks, supported by strong
macroeconomic fundamentals and policy buffers. Looking ahead, policies
should focus on preserving macro-financial stability and hard-won
credibility, while accelerating structural reforms to sustain strong
growth and create more jobs.Recent economic developments, outlook, and
risks. Growth momentum remained firm in early 2026, before the start
of the war in the Middle East. Rapid estimates indicate that real GDP
growth reached 8.4 percent in January-February, up from 7.5 percent in
2025. On the supply side, activity was driven by a sustained expansion
in information and communication technology (ICT), transport, and
education services. On the demand side, private consumption remained
the main driver, supported by moderating but still solid real wage and
consumer credit growth. Leading indicators suggest that the impact of
the war on economic activity has so far been limited and concentrated
mainly on tourism. Assuming the conflict is short-lived, real GDP
growth is projected to ease to 5.3 percent this year before converging
to its potential rate of around 5 percent in the medium term.Inflation
pressures have increased since the start of the conflict, but core
inflation remained subdued. After ending 2025 at 4 percent, headline
inflation stood at 4.3 percent in March, reflecting higher imported
food and oil prices, partly related to the war in the Middle East,
while core inflation remained below the National Bank of Georgia’s
(NBG) 3 percent target. Inflation is projected to stay elevated in the
first half of 2026, driven by increases in fuel and electricity
prices, before converging to target by mid-2027 as the one-off effects
of higher food and energy prices dissipate, demand moderates, and the
output gap closes.The external position has strengthened but is
exposed to volatile energy prices and tourism receipts. According to
initial estimates, the current account deficit narrowed to 2.6 percent
of GDP in 2025, supported by strong services exports, lower energy
import costs, and robust remittances. Gross international reserves
rose to historic highs, exceeding the IMF’s reserve adequacy
threshold for the first time since 2022, reflecting sizable foreign
exchange (FX) purchases amid strong external inflows and deposit
de-dollarization, as well as valuation gains. The current account
deficit is projected to widen to 5 percent of GDP in 2026, driven by
higher oil prices and lower tourism receipts, and to stabilize around
this level over the medium term, as the closing output gap and
continued growth of less import-intensive exports—such as ICT and
education services—help contain imports.Fiscal performance has been
strong. The fiscal deficit declined well below budget targets in 2025,
reflecting robust revenues and under-execution of capital spending,
while public debt fell below 35 percent of GDP. The 2026 budget
appropriately targets a deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP, envisaging a
rebound in capital spending. The implementation and procurement
bottlenecks experienced last year are expected to ease, with major
infrastructure projects moving forward. The outturn is projected to be
somewhat lower than budgeted, supported by higher-than-expected NBG
dividends and strong revenue performance. The successful rollover of a
$500 million Eurobond in January underscores investor confidence in
Georgia’s macroeconomic fundamentals and policy credibility.
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