Tbilisi (GBC) – The National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat) has revised population figures and key demographic indicators for the 2015–2025 period. The need for recalculation was prompted by the results of the 2024 Population Census. The purpose is to harmonise the historical data series with the census results. Revising data for the periods between censuses is an internationally recognised practice, recommended by international organisations and widely applied by statistical offices in various countries. This ensures the compatibility and comparability of data between censuses.
As the first stage of the revision, Geostat assessed the consistency of the main components of population change – births, deaths and migration – with the results of the 2014 and 2024 censuses. The analysis showed that existing data on natural population movements were based on sufficiently robust and reliable administrative sources. Accordingly, birth and death figures remained unchanged during the recalculation of the intercensal period, while discrepancies identified between the censuses were adjusted through a revision of the migration component.
The need to revise migration figures was driven by several methodological and practical factors.
First, different time criteria are used to determine usual residence and migrant status in population censuses and current migration statistics. The population census applies a 12-month residence criterion, whereas current migration statistics use a six-month threshold. This difference means that the same individual's movement may not always be classified in the same way under census and current migration statistics.
The second important factor relates to the country's territorial specifics. Comprehensive administrative information on population movements between occupied territories and territories controlled by the Georgian authorities is unavailable, and such movements are therefore not reflected in current international migration statistics.
The third factor concerns the methodology used to produce current migration statistics. The main administrative source for migration data consists of individual records of state border crossings. However, crossing the state border does not in itself mean that a person has changed their usual place of residence. Therefore, classifying administrative border-crossing records as migration events requires the application of time-based criteria, algorithms and estimation methods. In addition, some estimation coefficients and distribution parameters used in current migration statistics were based on migration structures and behavioural patterns established during the previous census period.
It should also be noted that migration is one of the most volatile components of demographic processes and responds significantly to economic, political, social and external factors. Particularly substantial changes were recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and following subsequent developments in the region. Both the intensity of international movements and the duration of stays, frequency of repeated movements and behaviour of different migrant groups changed.
Methodology Used to Revise the Historical Data Series
The recalculation of demographic indicators was based on a combination of internationally recognised and scientifically grounded statistical methods, including:
- Cohort-Component Method, used to recalculate population figures across successive age and sex groups.
- Demographic Balancing Method, applied to reconcile population changes with births, deaths, immigration and emigration.
- Multi-source Data Integration Method, used to combine population census data, civil registration records, administrative data and other supplementary sources within a unified analytical framework, according to their respective purposes and quality.
- Geographic Harmonisation/Reclassification Adjustment Method, used to account for changes in administrative boundaries and settlement classifications to ensure comparability over time.
The population recalculation was not limited to the country's overall figures. Revisions were also carried out at the regional, municipal, urban and rural settlement levels, as well as for cities and towns.
It should be noted that the revisions covered population figures for 2016–2024 and migration data for 2015–2024.
Population Growth Between 2015 and 2025
Between 2015 and 2025, Georgia's population increased by 5.6%, or 208,500 people, from 3,721,900 to 3,930,400.
At the national level, population growth remained relatively moderate between 2015 and 2021, increasing by 63,500 people, or 1.7%, over this period. As of January 1, 2022, the population had declined by 25,000 compared with the previous year. The trend subsequently changed significantly: between 2022 and 2025, Georgia's population increased by 169,900 people, or 4.5%.
An analysis of the components of the demographic balance provides a more accurate explanation of annual population changes. Population figures as of January 1 reflect the combined results of natural increase and net migration during the preceding calendar year. Between 2015 and 2019, natural population growth remained positive, although it gradually declined, while net migration generally remained moderate.
From 2020, natural population growth turned negative. In 2020, negative natural growth (-4,000 people) and positive net migration (+19,100 people) resulted in an increase of approximately 15,000 in the population as of January 1, 2021. In 2021, negative natural growth (-14,000 people) combined with negative net migration (-11,000 people), resulting in a population decline of 25,000 as of January 1, 2022.
Between 2022 and 2024, Georgia recorded negative natural population growth, totalling 13,800 people. Nevertheless, the country's overall population continued to increase, rising by 169,900 between January 1, 2022, and January 1, 2025. This population change reflects the combined impact of demographic processes.
It is noteworthy that between 2015 and 2025, population growth was concentrated mainly in several regions – Tbilisi, the Autonomous Republic of Adjara and Kvemo Kartli. Population numbers declined in the remaining regions, while the population of Mtskheta-Mtianeti remained virtually unchanged.
Urbanisation Trends
Between 2015 and 2025, Georgia also recorded an increase in urbanisation.
As of January 1, 2015, 2,135,600 people lived in urban settlements, accounting for 57.4% of the country's population. By 2025, the urban population had increased to 2,445,400, representing 62.2% of the total population. Accordingly, the urbanisation rate increased by 4.8 percentage points over the 2015–2025 period.
During the same period, the population living in urban settlements increased by 309,800 people, or 14.5%, while the rural population declined by 101,300 people, or 6.4%.
Thus, Georgia's overall population growth between 2015 and 2025 was entirely driven by an increase in the urban population, while rural settlements experienced a downward trend.
Population Structure by Sex and Age
Alongside population growth, Georgia's age and sex structure also changed between 2015 and 2025.
The male population increased from 1,777,100 to 1,881,400, while the female population grew from 1,944,800 to 2,049,000. Growth was almost equal for both sexes. As a result, the share of men increased from 47.7% to 47.9%, while the share of women declined from 52.3% to 52.1%. The number of men per 100 women increased from 91.4 to 91.8, indicating a slight reduction in the gender imbalance.
The most notable change in the age structure was the increase in the elderly population. The number of people aged 65 and over rose from 531,300 to 690,400, an increase of 159,100, or 29.9%. Their share of the total population increased from 14.3% to 17.6%.
The population aged 0–14 increased from 702,800 to 773,300, with its share rising from 18.9% to 19.7%. Meanwhile, despite overall population growth, the population aged 15–64 declined from 2,487,800 to 2,466,700, a decrease of 21,100 people. Its share of the total population fell from 66.8% to 62.8%.
International Migration
According to Geostat, Georgia recorded a cumulative positive net migration balance of 212,700 people between 2015 and 2024.
Between 2015 and 2019, migration flows remained relatively stable. The number of immigrants ranged from 84,300 to 94,100, while the number of emigrants fluctuated between 75,700 and 90,800. Consequently, net migration remained relatively low but consistently positive, ranging from 1,100 to 8,600 people.
Migration flows changed significantly in 2020–2021. In 2020, the number of emigrants declined to 58,000, resulting in positive net migration of 19,100 people. In 2021, however, the country recorded a negative net migration balance of 11,000, an unprecedented development during the reporting period.
A sharp increase in migration activity and a significant positive net migration balance were recorded in 2022–2024. In 2022, the number of immigrants reached 200,200, while net migration stood at 89,000, the highest figure recorded during the reporting period.
In 2023 and 2024, net migration amounted to 54,800 and 40,000 people, respectively. Combined, the 2022–2024 period accounted for approximately 86% of Georgia's cumulative positive net migration balance recorded between 2015 and 2024.
