Tbilisi (GBC) – The developments in Iran and the escalating chaos in the country could create a migration crisis in the region, including the South Caucasus. More than 10 million ethnic Azerbaijanis, over 200,000 ethnic Armenians, and up to 100,000 ethnic Georgians live in the Islamic Republic.
So far, the governments of the three South Caucasus countries have not made official statements regarding this potential threat. Farhad Mamedov, a political analyst close to official Baku, notes that the news from Iran is being perceived emotionally. “If a civil war breaks out in Iran, the issue of Azerbaijanis living there will gain special significance, and Baku will likely provide every possible assistance to its compatriots to ensure their safety,” he said.
Armenia reports concerns that its connection with the Armenian community in Iran is disrupted. Diaspora Affairs Commissioner Zare Sinanyan stated that a similar situation occurred last June during the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel. “At that time, we received information from citizens crossing the border. Probably today it is also better to do the same, as the existing information vacuum worries us greatly,” he said.
Experts note that in recent years, Iran has been an active supporter of Armenia’s territorial integrity and a firm opponent of the Zangezur corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan directly with Turkey by land. If Iran weakens, Yerevan’s position will also weaken, while the Baku–Ankara tandem will strengthen. This could also reduce Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing protest wave in the Islamic Republic, Armenia’s Foreign Minister met in Yerevan with the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister. On Tuesday, January 13, the Armenian Foreign Minister will meet with the U.S. Secretary of State in Washington.