Galt&Taggart predicts single-digit growth in apartment prices in Tbili...
Early in 2025, political uncertainty and weaker sentiment cooled
demand, as many buyers postponed purchases. Apartment sales recovered
later in the year as pent-up demand returned, lifting annual sales
above 2023–24 levels, though still below the 2022 peak. On the
supply side, even with an annual decline driven by a sharp 4Q25
slowdown, permit issuance stayed above 2015–22 healthy levels. Price
growth moderated as strong permit issuance in recent years intensified
competition, stabilizing price growth rate and pushing developers to
offer their most refined inner instalment schemes yet. In 2026, we
expect demand to remain broadly in line with 2025, supported by
long-term fundamentals - urbanization, declining household size and
attractive yields. Price is expected to have a stable single-digit
growth and will largely depend on the supply side - planned
large-scale projects and continued high permit issuance could add
substantial new stock, limiting room for price growth.DemandIn 2025,
total apartment sales in Tbilisi, according to the Public Registry
data, stood at 42,388 units, up 4.3% y/y.• Sales on the secondary
market, were up 12.3% y/y in Dec-25, bringing cumulative 2025 growth
to 3.5% y/y.• Sales on the primary market, where data are impacted
by delayed registrations, increased by 5.4% y/y in Dec-25 and 5.2% y/y
in 2025. Our real-time survey of developers, which captures current
trends on the primary market, shows that sales doubled y/y in Dec-25,
supported by low base of Dec-24, when domestic political instability
began. Cumulatively, primary market sales were up 27.3% y/y in
2025.SupplyIn 2025, permitted living area in Tbilisi declined by 4.2%
y/y to 1.7mn sq.m, affected by sharp slowdown in 4Q25 (-32.1% y/y).
Even so, permit issuance remained elevated, 32% above 2015-22 average
healthy level. Notably, elevated permit issuance in 2023–25 was
initially a response to the demand surge in 2022, but it has yet to
fully realign with the lower postpeak sales.PricesIn 2025, prices
increased across both primary and secondary markets. Primary market
price was largely flat through 9M25 (0.2% m/m), however, growth
accelerated in 4Q25 to 0.7% m/m amid recovered demand and slowed
issuance of permits, reaching $1,373 in Dec-25. Overall, average price
on the primary market increased by 4.0% y/y in 2025, down from 11.6%
in 2024 and 20.2% in 2023. In Dec-25, average price on the secondary
market (for new buildings built with permits issued after 2013)
increased by 7.9% y/y to $1,316 per sq.m.RentsIn 2025, average rent
remained within the $9-10 per sq.m stability range prevailing since
2024. In Dec-25, price for renting an average apartment (50-60 sq.m)
in Tbilisi was $9.8 per sq.m, keeping rental yield within its
long-term healthy level at 8.6%.
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