Geostat Revises 10 Years of Demographic Data: Georgia’s Population Inc...
As the first stage of the revision, Geostat assessed the consistency
of the main components of population change – births, deaths and
migration – with the results of the 2014 and 2024 censuses. The
analysis showed that existing data on natural population movements
were based on sufficiently robust and reliable administrative sources.
Accordingly, birth and death figures remained unchanged during the
recalculation of the intercensal period, while discrepancies
identified between the censuses were adjusted through a revision of
the migration component.The need to revise migration figures was
driven by several methodological and practical factors.First,
different time criteria are used to determine usual residence and
migrant status in population censuses and current migration
statistics. The population census applies a 12-month residence
criterion, whereas current migration statistics use a six-month
threshold. This difference means that the same individual's movement
may not always be classified in the same way under census and current
migration statistics.The second important factor relates to the
country's territorial specifics. Comprehensive administrative
information on population movements between occupied territories and
territories controlled by the Georgian authorities is unavailable, and
such movements are therefore not reflected in current international
migration statistics.The third factor concerns the methodology used to
produce current migration statistics. The main administrative source
for migration data consists of individual records of state border
crossings. However, crossing the state border does not in itself mean
that a person has changed their usual place of residence. Therefore,
classifying administrative border-crossing records as migration events
requires the application of time-based criteria, algorithms and
estimation methods. In addition, some estimation coefficients and
distribution parameters used in current migration statistics were
based on migration structures and behavioural patterns established
during the previous census period.It should also be noted that
migration is one of the most volatile components of demographic
processes and responds significantly to economic, political, social
and external factors. Particularly substantial changes were recorded
during the COVID-19 pandemic and following subsequent developments in
the region. Both the intensity of international movements and the
duration of stays, frequency of repeated movements and behaviour of
different migrant groups changed.Methodology Used to Revise the
Historical Data SeriesThe recalculation of demographic indicators was
based on a combination of internationally recognised and
scientifically grounded statistical methods, including:-
Cohort-Component Method, used to recalculate population figures across
successive age and sex groups.- Demographic Balancing Method, applied
to reconcile population changes with births, deaths, immigration and
emigration.- Multi-source Data Integration Method, used to combine
population census data, civil registration records, administrative
data and other supplementary sources within a unified analytical
framework, according to their respective purposes and quality.-
Geographic Harmonisation/Reclassification Adjustment Method, used to
account for changes in administrative boundaries and settlement
classifications to ensure comparability over time.The population
recalculation was not limited to the country's overall figures.
Revisions were also carried out at the regional, municipal, urban and
rural settlement levels, as well as for cities and towns.It should be
noted that the revisions covered population figures for 2016–2024
and migration data for 2015–2024.Population Growth Between 2015 and
2025Between 2015 and 2025, Georgia's population increased by 5.6%, or
208,500 people, from 3,721,900 to 3,930,400.At the national level,
population growth remained relatively moderate between 2015 and 2021,
increasing by 63,500 people, or 1.7%, over this period. As of January
1, 2022, the population had declined by 25,000 compared with the
previous year. The trend subsequently changed significantly: between
2022 and 2025, Georgia's population increased by 169,900 people, or
4.5%.An analysis of the components of the demographic balance provides
a more accurate explanation of annual population changes. Population
figures as of January 1 reflect the combined results of natural
increase and net migration during the preceding calendar year. Between
2015 and 2019, natural population growth remained positive, although
it gradually declined, while net migration generally remained
moderate.From 2020, natural population growth turned negative. In
2020, negative natural growth (-4,000 people) and positive net
migration (+19,100 people) resulted in an increase of approximately
15,000 in the population as of January 1, 2021. In 2021, negative
natural growth (-14,000 people) combined with negative net migration
(-11,000 people), resulting in a population decline of 25,000 as of
January 1, 2022.Between 2022 and 2024, Georgia recorded negative
natural population growth, totalling 13,800 people. Nevertheless, the
country's overall population continued to increase, rising by 169,900
between January 1, 2022, and January 1, 2025. This population change
reflects the combined impact of demographic processes.It is noteworthy
that between 2015 and 2025, population growth was concentrated mainly
in several regions – Tbilisi, the Autonomous Republic of Adjara and
Kvemo Kartli. Population numbers declined in the remaining regions,
while the population of Mtskheta-Mtianeti remained virtually
unchanged.Urbanisation TrendsBetween 2015 and 2025, Georgia also
recorded an increase in urbanisation.As of January 1, 2015, 2,135,600
people lived in urban settlements, accounting for 57.4% of the
country's population. By 2025, the urban population had increased to
2,445,400, representing 62.2% of the total population. Accordingly,
the urbanisation rate increased by 4.8 percentage points over the
2015–2025 period.During the same period, the population living in
urban settlements increased by 309,800 people, or 14.5%, while the
rural population declined by 101,300 people, or 6.4%.Thus, Georgia's
overall population growth between 2015 and 2025 was entirely driven by
an increase in the urban population, while rural settlements
experienced a downward trend.Population Structure by Sex and
AgeAlongside population growth, Georgia's age and sex structure also
changed between 2015 and 2025.The male population increased from
1,777,100 to 1,881,400, while the female population grew from
1,944,800 to 2,049,000. Growth was almost equal for both sexes. As a
result, the share of men increased from 47.7% to 47.9%, while the
share of women declined from 52.3% to 52.1%. The number of men per 100
women increased from 91.4 to 91.8, indicating a slight reduction in
the gender imbalance.The most notable change in the age structure was
the increase in the elderly population. The number of people aged 65
and over rose from 531,300 to 690,400, an increase of 159,100, or
29.9%. Their share of the total population increased from 14.3% to
17.6%.The population aged 0–14 increased from 702,800 to 773,300,
with its share rising from 18.9% to 19.7%. Meanwhile, despite overall
population growth, the population aged 15–64 declined from 2,487,800
to 2,466,700, a decrease of 21,100 people. Its share of the total
population fell from 66.8% to 62.8%.International MigrationAccording
to Geostat, Georgia recorded a cumulative positive net migration
balance of 212,700 people between 2015 and 2024.Between 2015 and 2019,
migration flows remained relatively stable. The number of immigrants
ranged from 84,300 to 94,100, while the number of emigrants fluctuated
between 75,700 and 90,800. Consequently, net migration remained
relatively low but consistently positive, ranging from 1,100 to 8,600
people.Migration flows changed significantly in 2020–2021. In 2020,
the number of emigrants declined to 58,000, resulting in positive net
migration of 19,100 people. In 2021, however, the country recorded a
negative net migration balance of 11,000, an unprecedented development
during the reporting period.A sharp increase in migration activity and
a significant positive net migration balance were recorded in
2022–2024. In 2022, the number of immigrants reached 200,200, while
net migration stood at 89,000, the highest figure recorded during the
reporting period.In 2023 and 2024, net migration amounted to 54,800
and 40,000 people, respectively. Combined, the 2022–2024 period
accounted for approximately 86% of Georgia's cumulative positive net
migration balance recorded between 2015 and 2024.
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